How many providers are actually past a computed item 14 cut-off? At most nineteen.

Of the 2,126 superseded qualifications, accredited courses and skill sets sitting on live ASQA-regulated scopes, 37 have passed their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off with no extension published for them. That is about one instance in 57, across at most 19 providers, which is at most 0.5% of the 3,628 ASQA-regulated RTOs with current registration. Everything else on the clock, 2,081 computed cut-offs or 97.9% of the calendar, is still ahead. If you have read that hundreds of providers are already past their item 14 date, that claim has not done this count.

Where the 37 comes from, in full. The measurement itself, read on 2 October 2026, counted 45 instances past across 19 providers. 8 of those 45 are live scopes carrying a product ASQA has since published an extension for, which moves the day new enrolments stop — so 45 − 8 = 37. The provider count does not divide the same way: the measurement did not record which of the 19 held only that product, so 19 stands as the upper bound and 11 as the lower one, and this page says “at most” rather than pick a number it has not measured. The medians further down are the ones measured over the 45; they have not been recomputed over the 37, and we are not going to invent them. The three parts still add up to the measurement: 37 past, 8 extended, 2,081 with a computed date ahead — 2,126 in all.

Before anything else, what a passed date on this page does not mean. Every date here is computed by us from what the register publishes — the replacement product's inclusion date plus one year, the latest such date where a product names several replacements — and item 14 applies “unless otherwise approved by the National VET Regulator”. Where ASQA publishes that approval for a product, it is already applied here: every row below has been passed through ASQA's published extension table first, and the products with a live extension are counted separately rather than shown as past. What no reading of ours can see is an approval granted to a single provider. A provider past our computed date may hold exactly that, and then the date on this page is simply not theirs. The date also only ever governs new enrolments: learners already enrolled are not on this clock at all. Nothing on this page is a breach finding, and nothing here says any provider has done anything wrong.

What was counted

Item 14 of the 2025 Compliance Standards (F2025L00355, in force 1 July 2025) attaches a clock to an event the national register publishes: the day a replacement training product joins it. Under s 14(1)(a)(i), as ASQA's published guidance reads it (ASQA guidance, read live 25 August 2026), new enrolments into the superseded product are not permitted from one year after that — later if ASQA has approved otherwise for the provider.

The register publishes every input for that arithmetic and never performs it. So we performed it, for every superseded qualification, accredited course and skill set on every live ASQA-regulated scope: 2,126 scope-level instances, read on 2 October 2026, with a computed date resolved for every one of them (0 had to be excluded). This page is the small half of that measurement — the dates already behind us. The large half has its own page: the September 2026 wave.

The count, split at the instrument's commencement

The 45 instances as measured are not one group but two, and the split matters. The counts below are the measured ones; where the extension changes a group, it is said in the line itself.

• 41 instances, across 15 providers, have a computed date that falls on or after 1 July 2025 — with the instrument already in force. The median of those dates is 8 months old. Every instance ASQA has since extended sits in this group, so it is 33 once the extension is applied — the provider count inside the group cannot be re-derived, for the same reason as above.
• 4 instances have a computed date that falls before the instrument was in force at all — a median of 33 months ago, the oldest 34 months. For these, the one-year arithmetic lands in a period when item 14 did not yet exist. What the instrument asks of a product whose computed date predates its own commencement is a question for the regulator, not for arithmetic, and we do not answer it here.

Across all 45 as measured, the median passed date is 8 months old, and only 4 passed more than a year ago. In other words: even the scope entries that are past their computed date are, typically, only recently past it.

The products behind the 37

The most common codes tell one story almost by themselves: the wool and shearing cluster of the AHC package, whose replacements joined the register on 11 February 2025 — so their computed cut-off arrived on 11 February 2026, five months before most people had heard of item 14. One member of that cluster is not in the table below at all, because ASQA has extended it; that is the section straight after the table, and it is the most important thing on this page.

The rows ASQA has taken out of that column

8 of the 45 instances measured as past are not in the table above, and the reason is the most useful thing on this page: ASQA has published a transition extension for the product they carry. An extension is not a footnote to a passed date. It replaces it.

For AHC41316 Certificate IV in Wool Classing, ASQA's table of current and expired transition extensions says it in one line: “Enrol by date extended from 11-Feb-26 to 31-July-27”. We read that table at ASQA's own address on 21 September 2026. What an extension of this kind moves is the enrol-by date itself — the day new enrolments into the superseded product stop — and ASQA notes that an extended transition period applies to every RTO with the product on scope, so it is not granted provider by provider. So a provider carrying AHC41316 may keep enrolling new learners into it until 1 August 2027: 18 months later than the 11 February 2026 our own arithmetic produced, and the reason its 8 live ASQA scopes are counted here instead of in the table. Our computed date was right when we computed it; it is simply not the date that governs them. Learners already enrolled are, as always, on the other clock: they complete and are certified, or transfer, in a timely manner, with no hard date either way. ASQA publishes the current extensions here.

How we read that, and what we still cannot see. The extension above comes from ASQA's own table of current and expired transition extensions, read at its published address on 21 September 2026 and stored with the date it was read; the words in quotation marks are ASQA's, not ours. Two limits on that. Extensions get revised, so what this page shows is what the table carried on 21 September 2026 — the table itself is the record, not us. And item 14 applies “unless otherwise approved by the National VET Regulator”: an approval granted to one provider rather than to a product is published nowhere we can read, so on that count a computed date here errs early rather than late — an unseen approval only ever moves a date further out. That is not a guarantee that no date here is late. Our arithmetic takes the latest date where a product names several replacements, the reading most favourable to the provider, and an extension can be revised after we read it. If a date here matters to you, your own correspondence with ASQA outranks it.

These are small, specialist scopes, and that is not an accident. The big packages — community services, early childhood, engineering — released their replacements in September 2025, so their computed dates have not arrived yet. Which brings us to the real headline.

Why almost nobody is past: the clock has barely struck

Item 14's clock only started existing on 1 July 2025, and it runs one year from each replacement's inclusion. The register moves in package releases — hundreds of scopes inherit the same date at once — and the large releases that started clocks did so in late 2025. So the computed calendar is almost entirely in front of us, and it is not a slope but a staircase.

The first big chime was 5 September 2026, when 693 computed cut-offs were counted on 519 providers for a single day — counted 3 September 2026. Counted on 3 September 2026, two days out. Read again on the day itself, 5 September 2026: not one of them was still on an ASQA-regulated scope (26 scope entries remained, all of them under VRQA or TAC, which item 14 does not bind). Read again on 14 September 2026: 2 of them were back on an ASQA-regulated scope (CHC50121). The register does not close the scope entry when the computed cut-off arrives: it can leave it open for years. That wave has its own page, product by product. Set against it, this page's 37 are the rounding error: the register's past is small and its calendar is heavy.

That asymmetry is the practical point. A count of who is already past makes a poor scare story — and any telling of item 14 that leads with “hundreds are already in breach” has confused a computed future with a computed past, or has counted providers the instrument does not bind. The useful question is not who is behind the clock; it is when the clock next strikes for your scope.

What “past the computed date” means for a provider

If one of the products above is on your scope, three readings of the same fact are open, and the register cannot tell them apart:

1. You hold an extension. The ones ASQA publishes for a whole product are already applied on this page. A provider-specific one is not published anywhere we can read, so if you hold one the computed date is not yours — your regulator correspondence is the record that matters, not this page.
2. You stopped enrolling long ago. The register records what is on a scope, not who is enrolled in it. A product can sit on scope, past its computed date, with its last new enrolment years behind it and every remaining learner finishing in a timely manner. From the outside — and we are the outside — that is indistinguishable from case 3.
3. The date arrived unnoticed. In which case the decisions still open are the same as for anyone ahead of a cut-off: new learners go into the replacement code, learners already enrolled finish or transfer in a timely manner, and the conversation to have is with ASQA, not with a dashboard.

Which of the three describes any given provider is knowable only to that provider and its regulator. That is precisely why this page counts scope entries and never names providers.

How this was measured, and what it does not say

Measured by reading every ASQA-regulated live scope on training.gov.au, product by product, on 2 October 2026 — population: the 3,628 RTOs with current registration whose registration manager is the national regulator (counted on 20 August 2026). Every date here is the computed date — the replacement's inclusion date plus one year, the latest where several replacements are named — then passed through ASQA's published table of transition extensions, read 21 September 2026, which overrides our arithmetic for the products it names. ASQA can also extend a date for a given provider, and those approvals are not published, so a passed computed date is never a finding about anyone. Item 14 binds providers registered by the national regulator; providers registered only in Victoria (VRQA) or Western Australia (TAC) sit under their own regulator's arrangements and are not counted here. The register records what is on a scope, not who is enrolled — a provider may have stopped enrolling into a product long before any date on this page, and only that provider knows. We read the register and the legislation; we do not assess compliance.

Your own dates

The number that matters to you is not 37 — it is whether any of the 2,081 computed cut-offs still ahead is on your scope, and when. That check is free and takes one line: type an RTO code on the home page and it lists every superseded product on that live scope with its computed item 14 enrolment cut-off, plus the full cut-off calendar for that scope. No account, no card.