Original measurement
Counted here, from the register itself. We could not find these numbers published anywhere else, so each one says what it measured, over how many products, and on what day — enough to reproduce it or dispute it.
One in ten current qualifications lists a deleted unit the register publishes no replacement for
We asked the National Register for the unit grid of every current qualification — all 1,164, of which 1,150 publish one — and then read the register's own record for every unit those grids stop recommending. 114 qualifications, 9.9%, list at least one unit the register publishes as not current with an empty replacement list: 214 product-unit pairs over 143 distinct units, seven of the pairs marked core. The grid says the unit is deleted and still requires it; the unit's record offers nothing to go to. With the three API queries, so it can be reproduced or disputed.
1 September 2026 · every current qualification and skill set read from the live register in a single day, zero units left unread; then two further passes the same day — the second independent, the third adversarial and re-running the whole census — which reproduced every published figure and corrected threeCorrectionThere is no teach-out period for a superseded qualification
We counted the words: "teach" appears zero times in the instrument RTOs are audited against — all 20 sections and all three schedules — and zero times in ASQA's live How to transition page. The old phrase carried a date, and it put that date on the half of the job that no longer has one. What the rule actually splits it into, quoted in full, with ASQA's own two extension notices — twelve months apart, under the two instruments — as the before-and-after.
31 August 2026 · every quotation read from the primary source the same day — the instrument whole from legislation.gov.au, the ASQA pages via our own reader in Sydney; word counts reproducible against the same documentsMeasuredASQA has extended 967 training products. Two extensions are live today.
Every row of ASQA's Current and expired transition extensions table, counted: 1,241 entries, 967 distinct products, two in force. Median length 272 days; median notice before the extended period began, 183 days — and 118 of the 137 announcement links on ASQA's own table return a 404. Crossed against live ASQA-registered scopes, 1.1% of superseded scope entries — 22 of 2,068, counted product by RTO — are covered by a live extension. The base rate behind "they'll extend it".
31 August 2026 · the whole table parsed and every announcement link fetched on 31 August; the scope cross recounted from the raw 20 August reading, reproducing the published figures by a second pathCorrectionEquivalence is decided unit by unit, not qualification by qualification
The register publishes an equivalence flag against a superseded qualification, and almost everyone reads it there. Outcome Standard 1.7 of F2025L00354 asks the question one unit of competency at a time. Measured across every ASQA-regulated live scope on 27 August 2026: 2,029 providers hold a not-equivalent unit and 41 hold a not-equivalent qualification — and 1,988 of them would see nothing at all by checking only their qualifications.
27 August 2026 · all 3,890 live scopes read in a single day, nothing left unresolved; the pass independently reproduces two figures measured earlier by a different methodMeasuredThe next cut-off after September lands on 25 November
Two superseded electrotechnology products — UEE22020 and UEE22120, the entry door to the electrical trades — reach their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off on 25 November 2026: 52 scope-level cut-offs across 45 ASQA-regulated providers, on a single day. The number that matters: 21 of those providers are not in the September wave at all — this is the first computed cut-off their scope has ever had, and everything published about the September cliff does not speak to them. Both replacements are equivalent: an enrolment window closes, nobody re-trains a cohort.
26 August 2026 · wave figures from the register-wide read of 20 August; the 24/21 provider split re-counted from the raw scope data and both supersession chains re-read from the live register on 25 AugustMeasuredHow many providers are actually past a computed item 14 cut-off?
Of the 2,068 superseded products sitting on live ASQA-regulated scopes, 26 have passed their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off — across 14 providers, 0.4% of the sector. Everything else, 2,042 computed cut-offs, is still ahead. The clock only started existing on 1 July 2025 and runs a year from each replacement, so the calendar is almost entirely in front of us. Not a breach count: every date is computed, extensions exist and do not appear in the register, and the date governs new enrolments only.
25 August 2026 · counted from the register-wide read of 20 August across every ASQA-regulated live scope; the ASQA extension for the AHC wool cluster is reported from a search index and could not be re-read in place, and the page says soMeasuredThe four products behind the September cut-off
Four superseded products reach their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off on Saturday 5 September 2026 — 693 scope-level cut-offs across 519 ASQA-regulated providers, all of them in community services and early childhood, every one with an equivalent replacement. Read against the register on 3 September 2026: the four engineering products that shared this wave in the August read are no longer on any ASQA scope.
24 August 2026 · scope counts from the register-wide re-read of 3 September 2026 (the August read was two weeks stale and the engineering half of the wave had left every ASQA scope); the leading chains and their release dates checked by hand against the live registerMeasuredThe wave where equivalence runs out: meat processing, measured
Ten superseded AMP meat processing products reach their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off on 2 February 2027 — and none of them has an equivalent replacement named on the register. 132 of the wave's 156 scope instances, concentrated on 27 ASQA-regulated providers: the calendar's starkest not-equivalent cluster.
23 August 2026 · wave figures from the register-wide read; the lead chain (AMPSS00044 → AMPSS00088, flagged not equivalent) checked by hand against the live registerMeasuredCHC30121: the enrolment window, measured
CHC30121 Certificate III in Early Childhood Education and Care is superseded by CHC30125, flagged equivalent, and its computed item 14 enrolment cut-off is 23 December 2026 — on the 371 ASQA-regulated live scopes that carry it, more than any other product with a computed date still ahead.
22 August 2026 · scope count from the register-wide read; the CHC30121 → CHC30125 chain, equivalence flag and release date checked by hand against the live registerMeasuredThe item 14 enrolment cut-off, measured
693 superseded training products sitting on 519 live ASQA-regulated RTO scopes have their computed item 14 enrolment cut-off on one day: Saturday 5 September 2026. Register read 3 September 2026. September is only the first wave: the full calendar of computed cut-offs runs in waves through September 2027.
21 August 2026 · every live RTO scope read in a single day, ASQA-regulated providers only; the largest results checked by hand against the registerMeasuredCurrent qualification, superseded unit: the 43% of RTOs nobody counts
43% of Australian RTOs have a superseded unit of competency on their live scope and not one superseded qualification, course or skill set. Reading down your qualification list never shows it — and fewer than a third of providers come back genuinely clean.
17 August 2026 · census of 3,884 RTOs, read in a single dayMeasuredNot every supersession costs the same: the not-equivalent rate by training package
40% of superseded qualifications are flagged not equivalent — but the rate runs from 8% to 70% depending on which training package you deliver. Nine times the difference, and nothing tells you which side you are on until it happens.
17 August 2026 · measured across 125,996 products on training.gov.auMeasuredWhen the replacement is also superseded: the chain, measured
For 53% of superseded training products — and 66% of qualifications — the replacement the register shows you is itself already superseded. We walked the whole national catalogue and counted the hops.
14 August 2026 · measured across 125,996 products on training.gov.auCorrectionThe 12-month transition rule was repealed on 1 July 2025
Most published guidance still says you have twelve months to transition your students. That requirement was removed. What replaced it splits the question in two — and only one half has a number.
11 August 2026 · quotations verified against legislation.gov.auHow to read the register
The mechanics, done by hand on training.gov.au. No account and no tool needed — every step is on the public register.
How to check if a qualification on your scope is superseded
The step-by-step, using nothing but the public register: your scope list, the difference between a scope entry and the national status, and where the equivalence flag hides.
5 August 2026 · examples verified against training.gov.auHow-toEquivalent vs not equivalent: the flag that decides how much work a supersession is
Two supersessions can look identical in your scope list and mean completely different amounts of work. The difference is one flag, two clicks deep.
5 August 2026 · examples verified against training.gov.auHow-toLive scope vs scope history: reading training.gov.au without scaring yourself
The register publishes everything you were ever approved to deliver. Counting the wrong rows makes your exposure look far bigger — or far smaller — than it is.
5 August 2026 · examples verified against training.gov.auGet the next one
New pieces are measured, not opinion — a few a year. Leave an email and we send the next one when it's out. No account, no sales, one click to stop.
Rather not do this by hand?
The free check reads your live scope from the register, applies all of this in seconds, and puts the item 14 enrolment cut-off on every superseded product it finds. If you want the sector-wide picture first, our study of 3,884 RTOs counts how many list a superseded qualification on live scope.
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